Disc-free Future for Game Consoles?
Some of you may recall Peter Moore's comment earlier this year when he described what he saw in the future of game regarding Electronic Software Distribution, or ESD for short. To quote:
"Years from now, the concept of driving to the store to buy a plastic disc with data on it and driving back and popping it in the drive will be ridiculous... We’ll tell our grandchildren we did that, and they’ll laugh at us.”
Appears Sony is jumping on the bandwagon as well, with this Wired story in which Phil Harrison of Sony is quoted as saying "I’d be amazed if the PlayStation 4 has a physical disc drive." (There's a bit of irony there since a disc-less future seems to be a bit at odds with the "future proof" messaging we've heard lately around Blu-ray and the PS3, but let's ignore that for the moment.)
What strikes me about all this is that the future is indeed coming, and I think it may well be here sooner than people expect. For what it's worth, I agree with both statements above... mostly. I do believe ESD is going to be a huge component of the gaming industry in the next few years. That said, I don't think retail is going anywhere anytime soon... nor do I think it's likely the next generation of consoles will drop physical disc drives. Here's why.
You hear a lot of theory and excitement about ESD "cutting out the middleman" (also known as retail) and "allowing developers direct access to the consumer." The problem is retail stores play a huge part in this business of getting both hardware and software into consumers' hands, and I don't see a future where retail won't be involved. First, retailers play a big part in aggregating, marketing, and promoting content. Simply put, they're a one-stop shop for the sort of content you as a gamer are looking for. Second, I just don't see ubiquitous broadband access into all of the homes this business wants to sell to five years from now. It's just not going to happen, and no console manufacturer is going to abandon a huge chunk of the market by removing a physical drive that allows offline customers to buy and play games. (Sure, there might be a huge focus on the online aspects of gaming and community... but totally abandoning those poor souls with fat wallets but no broadband? Unlikely.)Finally, and perhaps most obviously, retailers sell the hardware you play on, right? We're a long ways away from you being able to get a physical console delivered digitally (though those new 3D printers are a pretty cool step in that direction!)
That said, don't think I'm down on ESD. I do think it's the future - but I think it's further off than Phil might promote with his disc-less PS4 quote. We all see Steam's success for Valve, and imagine Xbox Live's Marketplace and Arcade as harbingers of the future. But we still need someone to aggregate and market content and be that one-stop shop for the majority of what you might want to buy. Valve is cool technology, but has a limited selection. Same with Marketplace, and Arcade. While some might buy a game directly from the publisher (especially in cases where the game is more of a service, such as MMOs), I think it's more likely that we'll see the equivalent of electronic storefronts on the web and online services that sell the majority of titles. In other words, instead of you walking into a physical store to buy Halo 4, you might just visit the EB Games or Walmart blade in Marketplace and buy it based on price.
We're a ways away from the grand vision. We need broadband penetration to become so ubiquitous it's just a "duh" that everyone's connected. And we need more consumers to try out digital ways of getting content. I think it'll happen... but it's going to take time. That said, don't be surprised if you see some pretty big steps in that direction this generation. It's going to be a fun five years. 