[Edit] The Tremors Begin: Walmart and HD-DVD

Some interesting news on the net this weekend about Walmart apparently placing a two million unit order for HD-DVD players (worth USD$100 million). Assuming those numbers are correct, Walmart's cost per player is about $50 each. According to the articles, a possible retail price for this holiday is $299, but there's a lot of speculation that it could be as low as $199.

Assuming all the above is true, the news is a pretty significant blow for Blu-Ray. When you look at stand-alone player sales (excluding PS3), Blu-Ray and HD-DVD unit sales are roughly equivalent. Sony likes to tout every additional PS3 as being yet another Blu-Ray player on the market - while there's some truth to that, it's also extremely unclear whether or not those PS3s are being used primarily for movie playback, or for games. Even if you posit every PS3 in consumers' hands is being used as an HD movie playback device, the price point is still incredibly limiting. And with stand-alone Blu-ray players still costing around $800 today, it's hard to imagine the price dropping to below $400 by holiday. A $299-$199 stand-alone HD-DVD player could well be what tips the masses to one format over another. (The availability of pornography may well be another.)

I've said before that I believe HD-DVD will end up "winning" this particular format war (pyrrhic victory it well might be). When we look back at the end of the year I suspect this will be one of the major inflection points.

[Edit - looks like there may be translation confusion - so we need to wait for clarification. From Engadget:

Pull back the reigns [sic] HD DVD fanboys, Akihabara now says that they've made a "huge mistake" with their translation: the original source called it "藍光 HD DVD and 藍光 means Blu-RAY." In other words, Blu-ray HD DVD. Huh? Word to the wise: since both formats use blue lasers, it's best to wait for an English press release before either camp celebrates.

Thanks to "ericdrum" for the catch!]

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20 comment(s)

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ericdrum wrote on January 23, 2008

I thought Engadget said that this was reported wrong as it was translated from Chinese and someone who could read Chinese said it actually said Blu-Ray HD DVD.

OK, I found the link. http://www.engadget.com/2007/04/20/the-wal-mart-299-hd-dvd-player-on-the-way/

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ImaginedBug wrote on January 23, 2008

We'll see what happens in the next 3 to 5 years when people have had to (rather than chosen to) get a new TV to replace their broken sets. Assuming they will the go for HD-TV because prices will have dropped enough.

But will those people get an HD player of either kind, or will DVD keep going strong.

If the latter is the case, what will the movie studios do? They can't try and force people to buy HD DVDs (of either kind) because it may backfire and push people to the illegal practices they so much fear.

I'm really only talking about myself, not speculating about people in general :)

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vittala wrote on January 23, 2008

Also, what video rental sites rent makes a difference and until folks can rent HD/BR movies I dont think you will be selling a lot of players. I came close to getting a HD-DVD player from MS until I thought about it and all the movies I watch I get from block buster online so what would I watch on it? I surely am not planning on buying a new library of HD DVD's especially when I have 100+ regular DVD's that I dont ever watch. I think digital distribution will be the future of HD and currently thats how I watch most of my HD either on air via Comcast cable or on demand via Comcast with a very occasional Live HD download. IPTV looks promosing but we will see when it drops.

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Porktree wrote on January 23, 2008

I just finished watching 'Enter the Dragon' on HD using the HD-DVD player add-on for my 360.  I rented it thru Blockbuster online. Sure the B&M's don't have either format, but the online rental places (Netflix, BB, Gamesnflix, etc) all have both formats available. I got the HD player in December, and have no regrets.  I also collect DVD's and have about 300 or so, I don't see why HD invalidates the collection.  I likely won't buy anymore DVD's (except from the $5 bin at wallyworld) but I won't be replacing all my DVD's with HD either.

The increase in quality is enough for me to spend the $200 on the MS HD addon, I don't really understand vittala, since he says he gets his movies online, but can't get HD movies?  And why collect movies if you don't watch them??  Weirdness.

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ericdrum wrote on January 23, 2008

@vittala, like Porktree mentioned Blockbuster online DOES rent you HD-DVDs. There's no extra cost either.

$200 bucks for the HD-DVD drive was a small investment for me to enjoy some HD movies right now. I actually got mine for $170, so that's cheaper than the 120gig HDD. I use Blockbuster online and the HD-DVD offerings are pretty good. So no matter what happens with these formats, I'm not going to feel screwed over on some huge investment if Blu-Ray or something else wins. I've never been a fan of any of Sony's proprietary technologies, so I do hope that Blu-Ray does not become the standard.

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Enzo304 wrote on January 23, 2008

Interesting to read.  To those of you with the HD-DVD add-on, do you really notice the difference?  I've been trying to decide what to do with my tax return, and HD-DVD is looking promising....

My TV is a 50" Hitachi LCD @ 720p/1080i.  The only HD thing I have is my 360, and I usually have it on 720p.  Whenever I take my 360 to friend's homes, I have a hard time telling the difference between their standard def tv's, and my HD tv.

So I don't know if I really should buy the add-on or not.  I have pretty bad vision, but my contacts/glasses take care of that pretty good.  So what do you all suggest?

I wish I could rent one for a day, even... Then test DVD's and HD-DVD's side by side, to see the difference.  Also, is the drive any quieter than the 360's?

Thanks!

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Ray wrote on January 23, 2008

I read through the Chinese news. It does say Blue-ray HD-DVD and also compare the price with both Sony and Toshiba's.

At the same time, it also mentions this is the only model on the world that can combine both two.

Look like it indicates a blueray & HD-DVD dual player.

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Porktree wrote on January 23, 2008

Enzo, yes, you notice the difference. I tested it with King Kong, since I had it on DVD and it came free with the HD drive.  It's huge.  And there are a lot of older classics coming to HD, I've rented Spartacus, Enter the Dragon, and Gran Prix (best racing movie ever made) recently and I know there are more I can't remember.

Is your TV natively 1080i? If so I think you'd get a little better quality from the 360 if you set it to 1080i.

And there is a distance formulae (I forget it exactly) that gives you the number of feet you can sit away from a given tv size before the hd doesn't matter. AFAIK, for a 50' screen it's 5-6 feet?

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Enzo304 wrote on January 23, 2008

Thanks Porktree!  I'm not sure what it is "natively"... I just know it works with both 1080i and 720p.  I leave it on 720p, because someone that sounded smart from either this blog or MajorNelson's said that progressive works better for games than interlaced does.  It might have been the same guy who said that 1080p and HDMI meant nothing.  Who knows... It's been a while.

Also, my couch is roughly 6-7 feet away.

It's going to be a hard decision, I guess.... If I go get the HD-DVD add-on and a few movies, that will probably use up all of my tax break... Or a few new games, and a new black wireless controller...

Thanks again!

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wrote on January 23, 2008

Not to be picky but... whats the reason to port some classics to either Blu-Ray or HD-DVD? I mean, I really doubt "Enter the dragon" was filmed with 720p/1080p in mind so I doubt there is any difference with the already available DVD version... or am I wrong?

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Porktree wrote on January 23, 2008

WiNG, I'm glad you asked :) But they were all filmed on film, some on 70mm film, so the quality of the analog picture was just as high then as it is now. So, digitizing them to HD yeilds the same results as digitizing newer films.  I hadn't seen Enter the Dragon on anything but VHS, ever, and seeing it on HD was amazing.  I watched Robin Hood on HD (1938 Technicolor) last night.  It was like watching a moving Dali painting, the surrealness of the colors, jaw dropping. Sooooo, yup, you're wrong.  Get a movie like Gran Prix, (this redefined how to make a racing movie), and see what HD does for it.  Looking into Enzo Ferrari's actual shop as the cars are being built... I could go on and on.

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vittala wrote on January 23, 2008

Duh, I had searched Block Buster for HD and HD-DVD in the past and got no results. After reading some of the posts (thanks btw) on this thread in response to my post I went back and found a movie I knew was in HD and then clicked on "All Editions" and found how I could rent HD. This changes a lot for me, I just may have to pick up an HD player now. The only question is do I get the 360 add on or wait until the holidays when prices are sure to drop and buy a stand alone player? I almost would prefer a stand alone but if anyone loves there 360 add on speak up. Thanks!

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wrote on January 23, 2008

A dual player, eh? I have to admit that'll be pretty interesting at $299 if it ends up being true. (Not doubting your translation, but until I see it on the street... you know. :)

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Porktree wrote on January 23, 2008

I like my 360 add-on.  But I'm cheap, and wouldn't spend the money on a stand alone.  The bonus is you get the fancy remote with the add-on, and maybe King Kong in HD (I don't know if that's still bundled in or not). And, I don't use up one of the precious HD ports on my TV (I only have 3 counting HDMI).

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vittala wrote on January 23, 2008

"And, I don't use up one of the precious HD ports on my TV (I only have 3 counting HDMI)."

Well, I was a bone head and opted for the 2 HDMI TV thinking it was the only way to go instead of 2 component and 1 HDMI and then I bought my 360 and was stunned that it did not support HDMI and I had already bought a DVD player/receiver(standard DVD) that only did component so I was forced to buy and use a VGA adapter for my 360 so I still have 1 HDMI input left. I'm still a little peeved on how M$ handled the whole HDMI port but life goes on and I still love my 360.

I will probably wait until fall before I go HD-DVD or Blue Ray. Who knows maybe Sony will have a price drop and I will go Blue Ray, hard to say right now.

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ericdrum wrote on January 23, 2008

Hey Andre. I hope you read this. Here's some more fuel for the fire. I've read in some other posts on other sites and people are saying it is in fact HD-DVD and NOT Blu-Ray. Here's some reading for ya:

http://akihabaranews.com/en/news-13678-2+millions+of+HD+DVD+%28but+which+one%3F%29+players+for+Walmart.html

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=10350112&&#post10350112

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wrote on January 23, 2008

Thanks for the info Porktree, I always suspected the conversion to HD discs would give no benefits at all. Unfortunately here in Spain the market for HD movies is... well, short. No videclub rentals yet (that I have found so far at least), serious lack of standalone players (basically, either the xbox addon or the ps3) and a total lack of this content at the Xbox marketplace here (except for movie trailers as new as Mission: Impossible 3). I have to admit the M:I3 trailer looks real nice though despite the reduced framerate

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wrote on January 23, 2008

From Ericdrum's links:

"Originally Posted by wei2008

I am a native Chinese speaker. I translated major points in those two links.

It is pretty clear to me that they were talking about HD-DVD. In the last paragraph, the major advantages of HD-DVD were mentioned, i.e. can take advantage of current DVD manufacturing equipments, low cost from DVD to HD-DVD, better protection from scratch and dirt, etc. I believe all these are compared with the format You Know Which.

The first batch, 2mil players could be delivered by the end of 2007 for $100 million, based on info from the first link. There could be more subsequent orders for 2008, totaling up to $300 million by the end of 2008, based on info from the second link (not Fuh Yuan's website).

All these information were released as part of campaign to promote Fuh Yuan's impending IPO for next March. It is from the Chairman of the Board of Fuh Yuan. He is the guy in the picture. He has to speak the truth to make sure his stock price flies sky high."

Obviously this is one person's claim posted on an internet forum. So it must be true. ;) Seriously, though, this will be one of those wait and see things... but it could shake up the battle quite a bit if true.

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JohnCz wrote on January 23, 2008

Is it true that Walmart is no longer going to sell XBox HD-DVD drives?  Why?  I know they are looking to introduce this *cheap* and yet to be seen drive but isn't going to happen until Q04.

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wrote on January 23, 2008

RE: "Is it true that Walmart is no longer going to sell XBox HD-DVD drives?  Why?  I know they are looking to introduce this *cheap* and yet to be seen drive but isn't going to happen until Q04."

No idea - haven't spoken with our retail folks. Could be  almost anything - too much inventory, focusing on other products, the rumored new HD-DVD drives from China, a mistake... who knows? Grab one while you can (if you have an HD display) - they rock!