[Edit] The Tremors Begin: Walmart and HD-DVD Monday, April 23 2007
Some interesting news on the net this weekend about Walmart apparently placing a two million unit order for HD-DVD players (worth USD$100 million). Assuming those numbers are correct, Walmart's cost per player is about $50 each. According to the articles, a possible retail price for this holiday is $299, but there's a lot of speculation that it could be as low as $199.
Assuming all the above is true, the news is a pretty significant blow for Blu-Ray. When you look at stand-alone player sales (excluding PS3), Blu-Ray and HD-DVD unit sales are roughly equivalent. Sony likes to tout every additional PS3 as being yet another Blu-Ray player on the market - while there's some truth to that, it's also extremely unclear whether or not those PS3s are being used primarily for movie playback, or for games. Even if you posit every PS3 in consumers' hands is being used as an HD movie playback device, the price point is still incredibly limiting. And with stand-alone Blu-ray players still costing around $800 today, it's hard to imagine the price dropping to below $400 by holiday. A $299-$199 stand-alone HD-DVD player could well be what tips the masses to one format over another. (The availability of pornography may well be another.)
I've said before that I believe HD-DVD will end up "winning" this particular format war (pyrrhic victory it well might be). When we look back at the end of the year I suspect this will be one of the major inflection points.
[Edit - looks like there may be translation confusion - so we need to wait for clarification. From Engadget:
Pull back the reigns [sic] HD DVD fanboys, Akihabara now says that they've made a "huge mistake" with their translation: the original source called it "藍光 HD DVD and 藍光 means Blu-RAY." In other words, Blu-ray HD DVD. Huh? Word to the wise: since both formats use blue lasers, it's best to wait for an English press release before either camp celebrates.
Thanks to "ericdrum" for the catch!]





I thought Engadget said that this was reported wrong as it was translated from Chinese and someone who could read Chinese said it actually said Blu-Ray HD DVD.
OK, I found the link. http://www.engadget.com/2007/04/20/the-wal-mart-299-hd-dvd-player-on-the-way/