Saw a link over on Slashdot to a Japanese article arguing that Wii's popularity may be a bubble. To quote:

"The report goes on to discuss the likelihood that many Wiis are gathering dust in owners' cupboards, citing one software house president as saying, 'People bought it out of curiosity, and it's likely a lot of them haven't used it.' Given that September saw Wii sales fall sharply in Japan for the second consecutive month, it seems reasonable to speculate that the bubble inflated by the novelty factor is starting to deflate, but writing Nintendo off at any stage is a perilous course to steer."

I only point to this because it's similar to my personal opinion. I like the Wii, but I just don't play it - haven't turned it on in months. I'd argue that's just my taste, but I know a lot of people who are in the same boat. Doesn't matter to Nintendo since they appear to be making money on every box sold, but I do wonder if demand will hold up past this holiday.

Just to be clear - I do think that Nintendo has changed the face of the market permanently with their focus on approachability and innovative controls. Not trying to take anything away from them there. I just suspect the platform is going to slow in the coming year... but I guess we'll see.

As least according to this Gamasutra article (quoting an email to GamePro):

Writing in an e-mail to consumer website GamePro, Pachter commented that “consumers may hope for improved graphics, and my guess is that Nintendo will comply.”
Continuing, he suggested that "in two or three years, commodity prices for graphics processors and CPUs may decline to the point that a High Definition Wii could be introduced. If so, Nintendo will likely introduce one.”

It's an interesting idea. My initial gut feeling was that this would be unlikely as releasing a new system (assuming it has a significant visual leap forward) would also require publishers and developers to basically add yet another development platform to the mix. It would also potentially reduce interest in the original Wii platform. That's something partners would be very disgruntled about as they're just now investing deeply in it. That said, there might be some synergy gained by using HD assets from other platforms, as well as possibly having a common SDK with the original Wii. And if the price point were relatively inexpensive, it's possible one might see another wave of (HD) Wii interest.

Who knows? Not going to really land on an opinion on this one as I could see it go either way. But it's an interesting idea that would certainly call the whole concept of 5-10 year lifecycles into question. 

Had a few good parodies sent my way recently - both from Sarcastic Gamer, interestingly enough.

First is a great take on the Microsoft Surface announcement:

[YouTube:CZrr7AZ9nCY]

And another takes on the Wii Fit board:

[YouTube:_iYBmAVuBns]

Enjoy!

Short form: not a lot for the core gamer, but to be fair, Nintendo is trying to go after a very different audience. Wii Fit is very, very cool. More thoughts:

• Demographic numbers were interesting - it's positive to see the audience broadening, and Nintendo has to be applauded here.
• The Wii Zapper and Wii Wheel fell extremely flat with the audience - not a single clap of applause, even when announcing they'd be bundled with future games. The magic of the Wii is the pointing controller; embedding it into a shaped piece of plastic just isn't exciting to me.
• The "innovative" Metroid control is "more of the same" thinking; aiming in an FPS with the Wii controller is wonky, and adding Z-targeting just doesn't make it any better.
• Nintendo is getting defensive about their lack of comprehensive online system. It was interesting to see Reggie try to point to the Nintendo DS WiFi network as proof of their online commitment, as well as a few more games with online support on the Wii. The problem is simply that these implementations are all per-game, and there's no platform commitment. I hope and assume there is work going on to eventually allow gamers to select a unique account name (or at least single Wii Code) to play across games and build a friends list. And I assume that will integrate your Mii to act as your avatar. Unfortunately, it's still not here and Nintendo is falling well behind Microsoft and even Sony here.
• Nintendo is pushing the "healthy gaming" aspect hard; it's definitely one of the more intriguing aspects of the Wii. Wii Fit looks very, very cool - it's the first fitness "game" I could actually see people using regularly, and the "Wii Balance Board" peripheral you can stand on seems pretty capable. The board measures your weight as well as pressure as you shift positions on the board. And the software tracks your progress over time (and allows you to compare with friends). Very, very cool - I think you'll see a lot of publishers jumping on board (no pun intended) this peripheral.
• Super Mario Galaxy for November 12th. This is probably my most anticipated game for the Wii, and it still looks like a ton of fun. Interestingly, no one applauded the date announcement - maybe it's just not good enough to hit holiday any more? Weird.
• Mario Kart Online looks like a lot of fun, but my concerns about the online network (or lack thereof) still stand. <sigh>

All-in-all, not a lot there in the keynote except for the fitness angle. But who knows, maybe that's all Nintendo needs to keep selling Wiis next year? I know I'll be picking up Wii Fit myself!

[Edit: It appears IGN is really pleased with the Metroid FPS controls. To quote:

It plays better than any first-person console game ever... really. And it's one of Wii's best lookers, too.
In fact, the heroine's tight maneuverability and speed nurture a level of accuracy never before possible in a console-based first-person experience. Retro has included three different sensitivity levels for fans, so if you're the type who prefers a big bounding box and slower turns, you can do that. However, we highly recommend that all gamers play Prime 3 with advanced controls, which shrink the bounding box so that Samus turns quickly when your on-screen reticule begins to stray in any direction. Previously, Call of Duty 3 was the benchmark for accurate controls in a first-person game on Wii, but Prime 3 blows that title out of the water. If you've played any FPS-style game on Nintendo's system before, you will probably be running and gunning in Corruption and absolutely loving the freedom and speed of the controls in a matter of seconds, not minutes. It really is the new benchmark and simultaneously proof that smart studios can really utilize the Wii remote and nunchuk for some dazzling results.

Now, it's worth noting that IGN previously had good things to say about Wii controls in Red Steel; comments which were proved patently wrong when watching the accompanying video (take a look at the 14:35 or 16:20 minute marks.) So I'll reserve my judgement until I can play personally, but just wanted to highlight the experience they had.]

Sorry - just couldn't resist the title... and it's all the funnier because there's really nothing to beware here. Just that inflammatory yellow journalistic streak taking a cheap shot.

Anyway, just saw over on N'Gai's blog his announce of Nintendo's Wiiware initiative - basically bringing original arcade games to their downloadable platform, versus the old-school classic content they've had previously. Many of us in the industry have known about this for well over a year, but interestingly, it hasn't leaked. Guess there's still a bit of professional courtesy out there.

I'm really looking forward to seeing what arcade developers can do with the Wiimote. I've said before that I don't think the Wii will have long legs. Even today, I struggle to find games I want to play. I honestly haven't turned the box on in months, and am currently just waiting on the next Mario.

That said, this arcade initiative is very interesting and could be just what the Wii needs to survive. Imagine (as I think is unfortunately likely) that third party support falls off the map by next year (meaning third parties just haven't been able to duplicate the Nintendo magic). Toss in a price cut or two, and the Wii could well become a $100 online-connected, arcade box... one that would fit well in every dorm room in the world. Obviously there will be price cuts from the other guys as well, but Nintendo is well-positioned to be the lowest cost console out there. If the games start flowing, I could easily imagine the Wii becoming a significant player in the arcade space - coincidentally, a space where higher-end graphics don't matter as much. Not a bad place to be.

A good friend of mine, N'Gai Croal, just posted an interesting discussion he had with Geoff Keighley about April's NPD report. I've known N'Gai for a long, long time now... perhaps ten years or so? We tend to disagree a great deal about certain topics, particularly Sony's strategy around the Playstation (including PS2's online "strategy" as well as almost everything about the PS3). That's led to some (sincerely) fun discussions over dinner and wine at trade shows (with hopes of many more!) That said, this time around I found that I actually agree with many of his thoughts. Take this for example:

The reason nearly a million fewer people have bought PS3s than bought PS2s during each system's first six months on the market is that at $599, the PS3 isn't as perceived to be as good a value as was the $299 PS2. At this point in the PS2's lifespan, it had the following meaningful exclusives: next-gen Madden, SSX, Onimusha, the Metal Gear Solid 2 demo with Zone of the Enders packed in, NBA Street and Medal of Honor Frontline, with Gran Turismo 3: A-Spec a couple of months from release. PS3 has Resistance: Fall of Man, MotorStorm and...what, exactly? Many of us were waiting to see how much the PS3's positives (brand strength, Blu-Ray playback, superior computing power) would offset its negatives (high price, lack of killer apps, tricky architecture, Xbox 360's lead and Nintendo simultaneous arrival) during its first six months in stores. Now we have the answer: not much.

Bravo! I completely agree! This is a bit of a shift for N'Gai as I recall him being a very strong believer in the ability of the Sony brand to sell PS3s early on (with me just not buying it.) Welcome to the light, N'Gai!

Also in the discussion Geoff summarizes another of Sony's challenges quite well - the fact that the Xbox 360 is the lead development SKU for the vast majority of platforms. This bit us last generation with the Xbox (which is why so many multi-platform ports looked similar to the PS2). This time around the shoe is on the other foot, and developers are leading on the Xbox 360.

As to your point about third party support for the PS3, I agree that most publishers will continue to produce PS3 SKUs no matter the near-term hardware sales numbers. But programming for the PS3 is a challenge, and I'm not sure I buy Yves' suggestion that porting a 360 game to PS3 only costs 10% of the budget. (This is coming from the publisher that still hasn't shipped Rainbow Six: Vegas for the PS3 six months after it was due out.) The likelihood of ports aside, the most important trend to watch is which system publishers use as their base development platform. Sony maintains that publishers will soon switch from the 360 to the PS3, but as of yet I've seen very little evidence to support that claim. Over the past few months almost 100 percent of the third party games I've seen have been demonstrated on the 360. Will things be different at E3? For Sony's sake I sure hope so. But even if publishers port 360 games to the PS3 I don't expect the games to look any different on Sony's platform. And that's a major problem for the PS3, especially given its premium price.

Finally, there's a bit of discussion around the Wii's current impressive sales. I think I tend to agree a bit more with Geoff here as he struggles to imagine a long life-cycle for the Wii, as well as sales remaining as robust as they have been through holiday. Don't get me wrong, I love the Wii for what it is, but I (and a lot of people I know) just aren't playing it right now. We're waiting for the next round of impressive games (the "holy trinity" of Super Smash Bros Brawl, Super Mario Galaxy and Metroid Prime 3 as Geoff puts it.) And we continue to be disappointed by the quality of game visuals.

It is worth stating that there really may be a significant crowd of gamers out there who just aren't as hardcore, and who are completely happy with the Wii as-is. But as the 360 and PS3 come down in price and broaden their portfolios to more family-friendly and crowd-engaging content, I just can't see Wii's momentum continuing. To quote Geoff again:

As for your question about Nintendo storming to first place, it's creating concern but not panic. Most of the executives I speak with still think the Wii has a shorter lifespan than the other consoles and may begin to slow down sales-wise later this year. That being said, it's hard to ignore the continued strong software sales for the Wii, including the bafflingly good sales of Wii Play. Again, I look back to those 115 million PS2 owners as the tea leaves. How many of those 115 million will decide to move to the Wii instead of the PS3 or 360? There's certainly a scenario here where Sony gets attacked on two fronts: The 360 starts to steal away the enthusiast gamer crowd that bought the PS2 in year 2 or 3 and the Wii starts to steal away the broad mainstream crowd who bought the PS2 in year 4 or 5 (and is still buying it now.) If that happens I don't know where Sony goes from here. Do you really think a $100 price drop solves any of Sony's problems? Is that disruptive event that the PS3 needs to kick it back above 150,000 a month in sales?

The whole discussion is well worth reading as it gives you some very different viewpoints. But I should again highlight that for once, I'm in more agreement with N'Gai than not. That's rare and noteworthy. I'm just not sure whether one of us owes the other dinner or not.

Was just talking with a good friend this weekend about the Wii. He's been looking to buy one for the last few months but hasn't come across it yet. Anyway, we started talking about the games to play and what I recommended, and I suddenly realized that I'm really not even playing the Wii anymore!

The half of Zelda: Twilight Princess I played was great, but since then the only game that's gotten any real time was Wario Ware: Smooth Moves. And it's not for a lack of trying. I've rented literally every third party Wii title there is from Gamefly, and almost every single one wasn't worth playing - either due to horrible controls, or to being significantly graphically inferior to a PS3 or 360 version. (The one exception was Super Bubble Pop Bust-A-Move Bash! - the control worked quite well there, but then again, I'd expect it to considering the simplicity of the game mechanic.)

I still love the idea of the Wii, but the controls just haven't delivered as of yet. I've had concerns for a long time about their applicability to FPS titles. Those concerns are pretty well-validated at this point, and other genres seem to be having similar issues. I'm hoping Mario Galaxy or the new Metroid spark some excitement again, but I really feel like the Wii is turning into the Gamecube of this generation with amazing first-party titles, mediocre third-party title support. To be fair, it's still early, and a lot of third-parties were caught by surprise by the Wii's early success. Here's hoping the next wave of third-party titles amaze... if they don't, I really doubt the Wii will have any legs come next Spring.

[Edit: Wrong game title - fixed.]

Saw an update from Compete (a company that tracks and analyzes online store searches to understand consumer demand). This time they're focusing on the Elite SKU, and asking the question of whether there's market demand for it. The whole article is interesting, so head over and take a read. But I'll pull a couple of interesting charts.

The first shows that Wii continues to be most sought after console, though its launch numbers have come down (as would be expected). It also shows that PS3 demand is declining month to month (also confirmed by the latest NPD numbers). Makes it all the more likely we'll be seeing a price cut this year. In general, all the platforms (including the 360) are holding relatively steady as we'd expect for spring months.

What's more interesting to me is a chart showing online retail demand for the Elite system as compared to different 360 SKUs/bundles. Remember, the Elite isn't even out yet, so this shows pre-order demand only - we'll need to see how that translates into real sales once available.

 

Most interesting to me is that it appears the Elite may be driving incremental shoppers to 360. To quote:

Interestingly, the Elite launch has driven incremental shoppers to the 360 brand. Looking at the aggregated** total shoppers, there has apparently been very little overlap elite shoppers and bundle or “lesser system” shoppers.
** Aggregated 360 demand measures the total number of shoppers for a 360, regardless of overlap: If someone shopped both a 360 Elite and a Bundle, they would only be counted once.

Although we'll have to see how many Elite purchasers are upgraders vs. people who have been waiting on the sidelines, the idea that the total market might be expanding is exciting. That's good for everyone, whatever platform you might care to hang your hat on!

Just saw a quick article over on Kotaku about a guy (apparently named The Amazing Rolo) who modded a Wii remote to allow him to playback, control, and manipulate music in real-time. Completely useless to the vast majority of people, but it's super cool to see the innovation that's coming out of that little white controller. Well worth watching the whole clip!

[YouTube:4tmtshJ72R0]

No other way to put it. And I'm not even talking handhelds, where the stomping was even greater. To quote:

February's NPD hardware figures continue to show Nintendo's Wii selling well ahead of the other Gen Now consoles, PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360. In February, Nintendo's $249.99 Wii sold 335k units according to the NPD group. Microsoft's Xbox 360 sold 228k units at roughly $389 per system sold across the two SKUs. Sony's PlayStation 3 sold 127k units at roughly $598 per system sold. Despite being available for ages, Sony's PlayStation 2 continues to outsell every home console not named the Nintendo Wii. In February the system sold 295k units at a per unit price of $129.80.

That's 100k units over 360, and more than 200k greater than the PS3. What I still can't wrap my head around is whether the momentum is going to continue or not. PS2 continues to sell well because it's dirt-cheap and has an incredible software library. (For that matter, if you're a huge PS2 fan and unsure where PS3 backward compatibility will go, why not pick up a spare?)

Wii has some cost benefits as well (though by the time you buy extra controllers it's really not that much cheaper), but what worries me is that it continues to only be successful as a first-party machine. Check out the top ten titles for February (as well as a few others):

Top Ten Software for February 2007:

360 Crackdown 427K

Wii Play w/ Remote 371K

NDS Diddy Kong Racing 262K

WII Legend of Zelda: The Twilight Princess 130K

PS2 Guitar Hero 2 w/Guitar 130K

360 Gears of War 119K

360 Major League Baseball 2K7 113K

360 Lost Planet: Extreme Condition 111K

WII Wario Ware Smooth Moves 109K

360 NBA Street Homecourt 102k

Software Tidbits:

Viva Pinata 18k

Hannah Montana DS 30k

Resistance: Fall of Man 70k

Virtua Fighter 5 53k

Sonic Secret of the Rings 83k

Rayman Raving Rabbids 60k

Red Steel 26k

There isn't a single third-party title in the top 10 for the Wii. Rayman Raving Rabbids, arguably one of the best third-party controller implementations on the Wii, sold just 60k, or just over half the worst-selling first-party Wii title. This just can't go on if Nintendo expects to get solid third-party support going forward.

This year will be a key test. We should see Wii supplies stabilize in the coming months and everyone who really wants the console will be able to get it. And third parties will release their second and third waves of Wii titles. The hope is that they'll come to grips with the controller and release some magical games - think LittleBigPlanet sort of stuff, but for the Wii. If that doesn't happen, I think the Wii will turn into another Gamecube - a great box, some great first-party games (that make it worth having in its own right), but third-parties will likely reduce (not remove) their investment.

The funny thing? Nintendo found a great niche focusing on fun and approachability, and are making money even now. Even if a "worst case" scenario like the above happens, Nintendo will still be very financially successful this generation and be laughing all the way to the bank. They deserve a lot of credit for taking a big risk but proving that there's an audience for lower-cost, approachable gaming. I suspect the "next" next-generation from all hardware providers will be taking that lesson deeply to heart.

Just saw this interesting post from Matt Pace of Compete, a company that specializes in collecting and analyzing online traffic metrics. The company collected data this holiday tracking US video game console demand, and the results are pretty interesting (if somewhat predictable).

I won't quote the entire article - it's worth a read. However, as anyone who has tried to find a Wii can attest, the platform has had significant demand, outstripping both the PS3 and the 360. The PS3's launch was reasonably strong but quickly fizzled, with the PS3 and 360 running neck and neck toward the end of January. If that trend continues, it's going to make it tough for the PS3 to catch up to the 360's headstart.

Also of interest is their analysis of cross-shoppers, or people who were initially shopping for one platform who then sought out another (likely because the first choice wasn't available). It's clear that momentum shifted from the PS3 to the 360 for buyers of those two platforms. It's also pretty obvious that the lower price point of the Wii seems to be appealing to a different audience, one who is less willing to consider shifting their purchase to a higher-priced platform.

More conclusions are available at the original post. Note that there is a typo in the URL (playstation is spelled wrong), so let me know if they fix it and the links in this post break.

As some of you have noticed, I haven't been online on the 360 as much lately. That's because I've been pretty much sucked into the new Zelda for the Wii, and am about 15 hours into it. While I believe I have a lot more ahead of me, thought I'd share a few quick thoughts. Don't consider this any sort of full review - it's really just first impressions.

• Classic Zelda - great puzzles, dungeons, character design. If you liked Ocarina of Time, you'll like Twilight Princess. I'm enjoying it a lot more than Windwaker (especially as the game gets you around faster than the boat did!)
• It's huge - I'm getting to the point where I could imagine some games wrapping up, but from reviews I know the game will be expanding greatly in a few hours.

The Mixed:

• It's the same damn game you've played a million times. There are only so many times I want to kick open chests, find rupees, light the two torches by a door to open it, fight a boss and hit it in the magic spot three times to kill it, etc. While I'm having a blast, I can't help but wish Nintendo would let Zelda rest for a few years and come up with some sort of new puzzle/adventure/exploring IP. I'm hoping there will be some innovation later in the game.
• Wii controls don't add anything to gameplay - this game was built for the Gamecube, and it shows. Luckily they're good enough that they also don't negatively impact the game (except for the loss of camera control).

• At it's best, the game looks good, occasionally great. Unfortunately, you do see a lot of muddy textures at times, and can't help but wish the game had been released on a higher-spec system.

Just saw over on Kotaku that someone's suing Nintendo for broken Wiimote straps. It's ridiculous. I think Penny Arcade said it quite well recently:

Nintendo has countered this behavior with a friendly and informative online brochure, whose bipartite wisdom can be expressed as

1. Hold On To The Controller,

and

2. Do Not Let It Go, respectively.

Indeed. <sigh> 

Also be sure to also check out some of the Japan-esque (yes, it's a word damnit!) illustrations warning you of the dangers of using your Wiimote. Good stuff, and a lot more credible than this suit in my opinion.

Funny, but some people (including friends) don't believe I picked up a PS3. A couple of emails suggest I'm just saying I picked one up, and that it can't be that easy (it was). And some wonder why I picked one up at all?

Short answer - I've always said I'd get a PS3, and that I believe there will eventually be a couple of games (probably platform exclusives) that will eventually make it worth having (especially at a lower price). I don't think that time is now for most people - $600 is a lot of money to basically do nothing but play Resistance. But you have to remember that this is also part of my job, and keeping hands-on as the system evolves has value as well.

Should you read this as a recommendation? No, no, and no. The system is just not done. I can easily recommend the Wii, however. (But good luck finding one!)

And just for grins, here's my PS3 (you'll actually see two PS3s as the Japanese unit was still installed, but I'm down to just the US one now). You may have to click the image to see any details - black on black doesn't seem to pop as well as one might hope. Oh, and mind the security, aka "Mocha" (this is Seattle, after all.)

My Wii code is 1257 8366 1810 0392. Please feel free to add me and send your little Mii's on over to visit!

You probably already know my Gamertag.

And for what it's worth, I just picked up my own US PS3, and indeed, will forever be known as Ozymandias in the land of the Playstation network (or at least as long as my account doesn't disappear under mysterious circumstances). Still nothing to play on it except Resistance, but hey - Motorstorm isn't that far off. I'm not convinced it's $600 of goodness, but it's worth it for me to keep an eye on the system's evolution.

Just hit the web. Wanted to highlight it as it's a great, non-technical summary of the current console war that really boils the current state down quite succintly (and accurately, in my opinion). Couple of quick quotes:

If you or your loved ones are even halfway-serious gamers who want to experience world-class high-definition graphics and an online gaming service populated with millions of other players, go buy the top version of Microsoft’s Xbox 360 ($399). On the other hand, if you do not really care about the latest graphics and want instead a riotously fun experience that can be shared by the entire family, including the nongamers who usually flee from a joystick, try to get your hands on Nintendo’s new Wii ($249).

And what about Sony, and the Playstation 3?

No problem. In fact, if you are anything other than a complete Sony fanboy (that’s Internet lingo for an obsessed, myopic groupie) go ahead and forget about the PlayStation 3 this year. Even if you find one, the overhyped PS3 does not deliver an entertainment experience commensurate with its cost ($599 for the top version, not including special cables to connect to a high-definition TV), and falls short of its main competition in important ways.

The big picture is that Microsoft and Sony are duking it out for dominance at the top end of the video game business while Nintendo has essentially carved out the less hard-core, more budget-sensitive swath of the market for itself. The Wii (pronounced “we”) is a mass-market entertainment device. The 360 and PS3, by contrast, are each trying to be the world’s best top-end video game system and also high-powered living room media hubs.

The big problem for Sony is that the 360 performs those functions better right now, and for less money, than the PS3. Sony may get the PS3’s act together in the future, but right now there is basically no rational reason to buy a PlayStation 3 instead of an Xbox 360.

I'm personally amazed to see mainstream press writing articles like this. Last generation it was painfully obvious many writers weren't gamers themselves, and didn't really understand the topic they were writing about. As such, you'd see a lot of regurgitation of press releases and PR speak. This time around people are obviously using and playing the systems themselves, and writing what comes of that experience. Very cool!

That's definitely my opinion after evaluating the system a great deal. Spent several hours last night trying to make sense of the current online implementation; as I said before, Sony's online system is busted, plain and simple. And Xfire isn't the magic answer.

I could write a lot on this, but frankly, at this point I'm not telling you anything you don't know. What may be more interesting to you are what other non-Microsoft folks are saying. You can find plenty of opinions out there, but I found a couple worth sharing.

First is a Gamesindustry.biz article by Tom Bramwell, where he gives a fair opinion on what he thinks of the PS3 so far. He has a couple of digs at 360 as well, so fear not, it's reasonably balanced. (I'm actually looking forward to his thoughts on the 360 tomorrow.) My favorite quote captures perfectly my greatest frustration with Sony at this point:

"The thing that sticks with me most, though, is Sony's annoying failure to get all the onboard software ready. Instead, we have the same mentality as the PSP - a mentality that's seen 23 whole months elapse before the handheld received a menu option to not automatically load up games when it's turned on, something rather handy to anyone who prefers to use handhelds to watch films and listen to music."

The other article worth sharing is a 1UP article called "Rage Against the Machines: PS3 Edition." This one is definitely a bit of Sony hating, so fair warning. However, there are just some funny as hell quotes in here. My current favorite:

"The sucker has eight freaking processors and is apparently capable of flinging eggs around with its mind, but it can't do more than one thing at a time. What's up with that? We have to quit out of a game to access the Cross Media Bar? Downloading something means your entertainment options are confined to the load-bar watching minigame. The 360 got this wrong at first too, and it was fixed with a firmware update. Hopefully we'll see the same happen on PS3, and quickly."

I'm probably done posting on the PS3 for now - at least until something changes for the better, or there's something positive to say. Currently I'm spending all my time with the Wii, especially playing through Zelda. I'll write up some thoughts on the Wii when I get a chance, but for now I can definitely recommend it, at least for first-party games. (And for what it's worth, if you play Zelda you have to play for literally two hours to get out of the initial "let's train you to use the new controller" mode. But when the game finally begins, it's pure Zelda magic.)

Amazing how a little reality throws cold water on some folks. Anyway, some folks thought the 1UP stuff wasn't of sufficient quality to draw any conclusions, so I thought I'd share a few more high-res side-by-side comparison videos gametrailers.com put together. As you'll see, PS3 and 360 are basically identical, and the Wii struggles to compete graphically (though the controller has a lot to offer - more on that later). Enjoy!

Motor Storm - Target Render vs. Gameplay Comparison

Call of Duty 3 - Xbox 360 vs. PS3 vs. Wii Gameplay Comparison

Marvel: Ultimate Alliance - Xbox 360 vs. PS3 vs. Wii Gameplay Comparison

I'm hoping they do more as this is about as close to factual, unbiased information as anyone will ever be able to agree on in this industry.

... at least for Nintendo. Yes, I'm still in Peru (Arequipa, to be exact) on vacation, but we're killing a half-day hiding inside a coffee shop from the beating sun. (The Inca Trail and Machu Picchu were amazing, by the way!) Anyway, so I have a chance to ramble on a bit about Nintendo's pricing announcement.

As I mentioned, I'm not at all surprised at the price. I know legions of Nintendo fans feel as though the console is priced too high, and that Nintendo betrayed them. I'm not quite sure I understand the logic as this is a business, and Nintendo A) needs to make money, and B) will sell every unit of Wii they can manufacture this holiday at $249. Put yourself in their shoes - why would you do anything different?

I think Nintendo's done quite well so far. They've positioned themselves cleverly and avoided the financially bruising battle of the "high-end" console gorillas. The new controller has a lot of potential, and using what's basically spruced-up Gamecube hardware should allow them to keep the lowest-cost console edge for quite a while (perhaps even the entire generation). All that said, there are three risks I see for Nintendo in the future.

The first is simply that their new controller doesn't live up to expectations, both for end-users and for publishers and developers. I've already mentioned some of my concerns around latency with the controller (especially for FPS/aiming sorts of games), and if the controller doesn't end up being "tight" and feeling just right for gamers Nintendo could see a huge backlash. This also applies to Wii title development from 3rd parties. There's a lot of publisher support right now due to uprising of Nintendo/Wii fever... but all it'll take is a few titles not selling well for that support to be revectored back to other more successful platforms (that don't need unique controller work).

The second risk is that Nintendo is unable to deliver a modern online gaming network with the basics, bells, and whistles everyone expects. Early indications are pretty negative, with the confirmed rumors of the frustrating Nintendo DS Friend Code system also being used for Wii. If Nintendo can't even deliver the basics of a unique ID, Friends List, and Presence, I'm concerned they won't be anywhere near delivering more advanced features down the road. (I'll give kudos for the virtual console at least - though I do have concerns about the pricing for playing old school titles.)

The final risk I see is how competitive the Wii will be two or three holidays from now. Today Nintendo gets a lot of slack thanks to all the positive and new aspects of Wii - unique controller, low pricing, innovative games, etc. A couple of holidays from now I wonder how compelling a souped-up Gamecube will be to  gamers, especially when compared to 3rd and 4th generations PS3 and Xbox 360 titles. Add in uncertainties around their online network, and that the controller won't be so new and exciting anymore, and I worry that we might be facing another Gamecube in a few years. To some extent, Nintendo will be able to counter some of this with a low price, but at some point the delta between the "high-end" consoles and the Wii will shrink to maybe $50-100, and at that point I could see a lot of people tipping toward whatever the more successful "pro" console happens to be.

Officially back in less than a week, look forward to your comments and thoughts!

Title pretty much says it all, but I'm heading off to Peru with some friends to hike the Inca Trail and see the Machu Picchu ruins.

We will be gone for a few weeks (first multi-week vacation in years!), and that means I likely won't be posting often. However, we should have plenty of transit time and I may get a chance to write up some offline posts here and there. In addition, Loraan may chose to grace these pages with his wry yet witty pontifications. Be gentle, as he hasn't had the fun of being seared by comments of competitive console fans (nor does he even work in the industry).

Oh, and a last prediction since the announcement will be while I'm gone: Wii will price at $249 in the US. $149 is too low (puts into weird competition with DS), $199 is still too close to $149/originally-released DS price, and even at $249 they'll sell every unit they can make this holiday. Yes, I know this would price a "Wii60" ($400 Xbox 360/$249 Wii) at above the $599 Sony SKU, but that's not Nintendo's problem.

Have a great month! If you need me, I will be here:

Saw some IGN footage showing off Wii games being played with the controller in Leipzig. Think most of you have seen it already, but just wanted to make sure. I wrote earlier about being impressed by the Wii controller, but I was also concerned about the inherent latency in that controller when used as a pointer (such as for FPS games). Unfortunately, the demo video doesn't allay that concern.

Before anyone thinks I'm down on Wii, I should make clear that the video does show plenty of good playability. I'll definitely be buying one of these day one, especially for games the controller seems ideally suited for: soccer, baseball, Mario Galaxy, that sort of thing. It's the FPS sort of games that look to be frustrating.

Take a look at the 14:35 or 16:20 minute marks in the video. You'll see a demonstration of Red Steel, and how hard aiming is. You can see just how hard it is it hit anything, especially as the pointer is doing dual-duty and being used to turn the camera and aim at the same time. The presenter (Fran?) suggests it may be because he's too close to the TV, but I had the same issues at E3, even at the recommended six foot mark. At this point my opinion is that the ~1/4 second latency is simply inherent at the hardware level and not something you can code around.

Graphically the games look pretty good - Gamecube quality, which isn't too shabby. There are a few points in the Red Steel demo that are Gamecube+, such as light streaming through bullet holes and some of the outdoor environments. Pretty much what I think most people expect, and sufficient for the likely price point. ($249 is my prediction.)

All in all, I'm pretty excited about Wii for games that are suited to the controller. Sadly, it appears "aiming" titles like FPSes don't fall into that category. Guess we'll all find out this Fall.

Been some articles on the web recently about an interview Reggie Fils-aime did with USA Today where he implied online gaming with the Wii would be free. To quote the key Q&A:

Q: You're not pursuing a subscription model?

A: We view online gaming as essentially an enhanced way to enjoy the gaming experience and drive more sales of hardware and software.

Q: How do you extend your online strategy to Wii?

A: It's the same premise. We will offer online-enabled games that the consumers will not have to pay a subscription fee for. They'll be able to enjoy that right out of the box. The Wii console is going to be Wi-Fi enabled, so essentially, you'll be able to plug it in and go. It won't have hidden fees or costs.

It's interesting, because at first glance one might get the strong impression that all online gaming on Wii will be free. But take a close look at what Reggie said - there are some finely-crafted statements here that give a lot of wiggle room.

First, notice that he didn't actually answer the question of "are you pursuing a subscription model?" The answer basically says "online gaming can make games more fun and help sell more hardware and software." Hmm....

Next, notice the wording of his second answer, where he states "We will offer online-enabled games that the consumers will not have to pay a subscription fee for." (Bolding my emphasis.) What he's actually said here is that "Nintendo first-party games will be free to play without a subscription." What he didn't say is A) whether third-party games have the option to charge for play, and B) whether or not there will be some sort of premium tier of online service people can sign up for with additional benefits (perhaps better matchmaking, online communication, nicknames, who knows?)

My guess is that it's up to third-parties as to whether or not they'll choose to charge (and I think the majority won't). But I'll be very curious to see whether there's an option to pay for an improved level of online service. I've previously written about the use of Friend Codes by Wii's online gaming service. It's fair to say many people on the web were disappointed by the lack of ability to personalize your online experience with a nickname. Hence I could easily imagine a premium service where you're able to have a nickname and other functionality, while still having basic, free online play for first-party titles (and not contradicting Reggie's statement).

Before people claim I'm ignoring a key quote, I do want to highlight Reggie's final statement: "The Wii console is going to be Wi-Fi enabled, so essentially, you'll be able to plug it in and go. It won't have hidden fees or costs." I agree that the "no hidden fees or costs" statement may seem to contradict the above. It all depends on what's eventually disclosed - for example, if the console box states there's a premium tier for a fee, it's certainly not been hidden. <shrug> All that's to say why I'm a definite "maybe" as to whether or not Wii's online gaming will truly be free... I guess time will tell.

I've always been a huge adventure game fan. Heck, the simple fact that I can even type is thanks to Zork, Enchanter, and Planetfall from Infocom. Unfortunately, these sorts of "thinking man's games" have pretty much disappeared over the years. You occasionally get a Dreamfall, or the fantastic (well, at least until the end) Indigo Prophecy, but generally it's been slim pickings for us adventure gamers over the past decade.

This is all to say why I'm pointing you to this article from adventuregamers.com (with credit to Evil Avatar where I first saw the post). It's a great read that really highlights some of the potential for interactivity and puzzle solving in an adventure game. Who knows if it's really enough to spark a revival in the genre, but hey - we're holding on to a slim thread now anyway, right? Why not try to grab the brass ring?

P.S. I miss Infocom. RIP.

It sounds like some enterprising folks found a few unreleased pages on Nintendo's website last week. They were quickly pulled, but according to this post from Kotaku (and many others), the WiFi pages stated that Wii would use Friend Codes (likely just as the Nintendo DS does).

To quote Wikipedia:

"Friend codes are "addresses" assigned to every player that uses Nintendo Wi-Fi Connection. The codes are usually assigned one per player, per game; the codes allow a player to store a list of friends with the same game and play with them when both parties are online. The codes come in different formats for different games. For example, the codes of Mario Kart DS and Tetris DS are six digits followed by another row of six digits, while Animal Crossing: Wild World's codes comprise three groups of four digits separated by hyphens. Friend codes in Mario Kart DS and Tony Hawk's American Sk8land allow the player to search for opponents that are in their friend list and are also searching for a match against "friends" with the same game. In Animal Crossing: Wild World, friend codes are absolutely required to visit another’s town via the Wi-Fi connection, perhaps due to Nintendo’s privacy concerns or the potential in-game vandalism that could occur from unauthorized visitors to the player's town. Adding a friend can also allow text and/or voice chat, as in the case of Metroid Prime: Hunters and Animal Crossing: Wild World. In "Animal Crossing Wild World", every Wi-Fi users codes of which you obtain, are stored in your "Friend Roster" so you can keep a record of whose town you visit."

I'm mildly disappointed by the news because the Friend Code concept doesn't do much to build community. Unless the implementation is changed, you're basically restricted to playing with only people you know who you have exchanged codes with. Now, I'll be the first to admit that the majority of time I choose to play with my friends anyway - I just don't have as much time to play as I might like, and when I do I usually try to spend time with them. So for me (and maybe many others), this may not be a big deal. But with Friend Codes you seem to lose out on the opportunity to meet new random people online (which I also admit may be a benefit at times!) Probably worse in my mind is that I'll miss the ability to personalize myself online. I'm "Ozymandias", not a string of digits. <sigh>

All that said, I also understand why Nintendo is going in this direction. The company has always had a strong history of being family-friendly, and concepts like Friend Codes fit right in this vein. It also makes building an online network a lot simplier, especially one which they want to provide to consumers without additional charge. So while I might personally prefer a more robust online service like Xbox Live, I think this is a great first step for Nintendo as they dip their toe into the online waters for the first time with a home console. However, I also wouldn't be surprised if something like "nicknames" comes along in the near future to allow you to better personalize your online presence. Let the landrush begin!

Had a couple of thoughts on the Wii controller to share.

The first is around rumors of unannounced functionality for the Wii remote. Although much of this article from IGN (supposedly based on leaked specs) is either unsurprising or highly speculative (I call BS on the camera theory in particular), there was one interesting tidbit in that the controller will have 6KB of non-volatile memory. (Non-volatile simply means that the memory can retain information even if the power is turned off.)

Don’t get your hopes up, though, since I don’t think the NVRAM is going to be used for anything else than controller personalization. My guess is that Nintendo is going to allow you to customize how the controller “feels” in games to your own preferences. It makes sense, then, to store that information in the wand itself so you can take it to a friend’s house and have it ready to go. In some ways, it’s almost like a hardware-based solution to what we do with global preferences and your Xbox Live gamertag/account when you roam.

The second comment is around the Wii controller’s latency. Saw some comments and disbelief around the ~1/4 second latency I experienced at E3 on some of IGN’s message boards, so I thought I’d try to clarify what I experienced.

Specifically, there’s about a ~1/4 second lag on motions with the wand. This translates into it being difficult to aim quickly in an FPS situation where you are trying to snap from target to target. I want to be clear here – you can aim precisely – but due to the lag you cannot just snap to a new target like you might with a laser pointer. You tend to overshoot if you do it too quickly, as I did many a time playing the Duck Hunt demo.

I’m not the only one saying this, either. Even back at E3 some writers had the same challenges I described, but may not have been able to precisely define the problem as latency. To quote this IGN preview of Red Steel from Ubisoft (with my bolded emphasis):

“As Nintendo has said over and over, however, playing is believing. The presentation could take a backseat of the gameplay was on, but unfortunately it didn't give the feeling we were hoping for at all. The gun control is amazingly jittery, having extremely high sensitivity when not zoomed in, and the overall feel is still very clunky. If you look back to the Nintendo conference, you can actually see the high sensitivity in action, as the main Ubisoft representative that was playing even overcompensated a ton, hitting enemies at a very low rate. The idea for Wii FPS games is to eliminate the need for dual analog sticks, but Red Steel isn't solving any problems, as analog control is being mapped directly to the Wii-mote. Since the sensor bar is placed above or below the television, players point at the bar itself, not at the screen. For this reason, the game doesn't allow pinpoint accuracy with the Wii-mote, as players have to steer a cursor rather than aiming at a point on-screen, which is a far more natural approach.”

“We aren't saying the game needs to work like a light gun, it just needs to have an accurate one-to-one representation of where your hands are in relation to the game. If a character pops out of a hiding place, players need to be able to swing their hand over and point at him as they would the barrel of a gun, and that is definitely not the case right now. The ability to calibrate your own controller and sensitivity will be added in later, so hopefully that will solve a lot of the problems we are seeing. Again, we played this demo over and over with multiple set-ups, and each time we had the same conclusion: Red Steer is harder to control than dual analog or a PC mouse.”

Please don’t feel I’m totally down on the Wii controller. All I’m saying is that I am not convinced that using the wand as a replacement for aiming in a FPS is going to fly. There's a chance that final APIs and hardware will help, but at the end of the day this sort of latency is just inherent to the system and there's not much you can do about it. That said, other games genres that are better suited to masking latency (such as Mario Tennis) worked better, and I think overall there will be plenty of games well-worth playing on the Wii with its new controller scheme.

Edit: [digg this article if you found it interesting!]

Good news on the wire today if you're a Nintendo fan. It appears Electronic Arts has six Wii titles in development, with others to be announced in the future. Currently announced titles include Madden NFL 07, Need for Speed Carbon, a new Harry Potter game, a Tiger Woods PGA tour game, SSX, and The Godfather.

This is actually a pretty significant announcement for Nintendo. Although I'm not one of those people who believe EA is a kingmaker, having this level of support is certainly better than having only the two titles announced at E3 earlier this year. It also shows a strong level of industry support for the direction Nintendo has taken with lower-cost hardware and their unique control scheme.

I'm actually a big fan of the Wii (although I'll add my voice to the chorus and state they should have stuck with Revolution for a name). My time with it at E3 showed a lot of potential for new game ideas and new ways to play. My biggest fear with the Wii is that the ~1/4 second latency inherent in the controller may prove to be too distracting for some types of games (such as first-person shooters), but we'll have to wait to reserve judgement until they ship final hardware, libraries, and of course, games.

That said, kudos to EA for stepping up and supporting one of the more original attempts to invigorate the game industry in recent history!